All matches

Lille OSC Métropole — Le Havre AC, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Lille OSC Métropole
2.7LWLWD
—
Le Havre AC
1.2LDLDL
Outcome probability
7118
Lille OSC Métropole71%Draw18%Le Havre AC12%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lille OSC Métropole71%1.42—
XDraw18%5.71—
2Le Havre AC12%8.36—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes41%

ours 2.46

No59%

ours 1.68

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLille OSC MétropoleLe Havre ACCombined
Goals scored1.671.002.67
Conceded1.171.172.34
Corners8.510.09.3
Cards1.21.52.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Lille OSC MétropoleLe Havre AC
    4Table position18
    47.00%Possession47.00%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Lille OSC Métropole: a home win is rated at 71%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Home

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Lille OSC Métropole

  • awayOGC Nice Côte d'Azur1:2
  • homeEspérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne2:0
  • homeReal Betis Balompié2:3
  • awayToulouse FC1:0
  • homeParis Saint-Germain FC2:2

Le Havre AC

  • awayToulouse FC2:3
  • homeAngers Sporting Club de l'Ouest0:0
  • homeStade Brestois 291:2
  • awayOlympique Lyonnais1:1
  • homeAS Monaco FC0:1

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Ligue 11:1
  • 11/30/25Ligue 11:0
  • 02/08/25Ligue 11:2
  • 09/28/24Ligue 13:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Olympique Lyonnais532010:211
3Paris FC53208:311
4Lille OSC Métropole53118:410
5Stade Rennais FC53118:910
6Paris Saint-Germain FC52218:78
7Angers Sporting Club de l'Ouest52126:57
8RC Strasbourg Alsace521210:107
9Le Mans FC51319:96
10Association Jeunesse Auxerroise52037:126
11Stade Brestois 2951227:85
12FC Lorient51225:65
13Toulouse FC51227:95
14OGC Nice Côte d'Azur51223:65
15Racing Club de Lens51139:94
16Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne51134:114
17Olympique de Marseille51047:83
18Le Havre AC50234:72

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.