Gjilani — Feronikeli, Superleague

Kosovo, SuperleagueOctober 18 at 04:00 PM

Gjilani

2.1WLLDW

Feronikeli

0.8DDWLW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

63%20%16%

Gjilani63%Draw20%Feronikeli16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Gjilani63%1.58—

XDraw20%4.88—

2Feronikeli16%6.23—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96

No49%

ours 2.05

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1747 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1745 matches

Cards

This market opens with Premium.

71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1736 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

GjilaniFeronikeli

KF Gjilani 63%, KF Feronikeli 16%. The safest is “KF Gjilani or draw” at 79%.

KF Gjilani 63%Draw 20%KF Feronikeli 16%

1st half

35 · 53 · 12

2nd half

41 · 37 · 22

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGjilaniFeronikeliCombined

Goals scored1.001.002.00

Conceded1.001.332.33

Corners8.210.69.4

Cards0.00.00.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with Premium

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.