All matches

Riestra — Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División

Riestra
1.7DDDDL
—
Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero
1.5DLLDL
Outcome probability
473122
Riestra47%Draw31%Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Riestra47%52%2.141.92-5.3
XDraw31%32%3.263.14-1.1
2Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero22%21%4.454.69+1.2

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes29%

ours 3.47book 2.24

No71%

ours 1.40book 1.58

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRiestraCentral Córdoba de Santiago del EsteroCombined
Goals scored0.330.671.00
Conceded0.671.502.17
Corners7.210.89.0
Cards2.81.34.1
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    RiestraCentral Córdoba de Santiago del Estero
    25.30%Possession49.00%
    28Table position27
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Riestra: a home win is rated at 47%. Bookmakers price this at 1.92.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Both teams to score: No

71%1.58
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Riestra

  • awayGimnasia Mendoza0:0
  • awayPlatense1:1
  • homeClub Atlético Vélez Sarsfield1:1
  • awayCA Huracán0:0
  • awayNewell's Old Boys0:2

Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero

  • homeCSD Defensa y Justicia2:2
  • awayCA Boca Juniors1:3
  • homeCA Independiente0:1
  • awayCA Talleres de Córdoba0:0
  • awayCA Tigre1:2

Head to head

  • 03/18/26Primera División0:1
  • 09/12/25Primera División2:0
  • 03/01/25Primera División0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
25CA Banfield25751327:3426
26Platense265101119:3025
27Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero26661418:3424
28Riestra253121013:1921
29CA Aldosivi262101418:3516
30Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2525189:3511

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.