All matches

Riestra — CA Unión de Santa Fe, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División

Riestra
1.7DDDDL
—
CA Unión de Santa Fe
1.6LLWWW
Outcome probability
423128
Riestra42%Draw31%CA Unión de Santa Fe28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Riestra42%2.41—
XDraw31%3.26—
2CA Unión de Santa Fe28%3.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes40%

ours 2.49

No60%

ours 1.67

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricRiestraCA Unión de Santa FeCombined
Goals scored0.331.501.83
Conceded0.331.171.50
Corners6.79.38.0
Cards2.71.54.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    RiestraCA Unión de Santa Fe
    28Table position13
    31.20%Possession47.70%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Riestra look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Riestra

  • awayGimnasia Mendoza0:0
  • awayPlatense1:1
  • homeClub Atlético Vélez Sarsfield1:1
  • awayCA Huracán0:0
  • awayNewell's Old Boys0:2

CA Unión de Santa Fe

  • homeCA Independiente1:2
  • awayCA Talleres de Córdoba1:2
  • homeInstituto Córdoba3:2
  • homeCA Sarmiento4:1
  • awayCA Aldosivi3:1

Head to head

  • 04/03/26Primera División0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11CA Independiente27118835:3141
12Instituto Córdoba25124928:2340
13CA Unión de Santa Fe281071143:3937
14CA Lanús26107928:2637
15CSD Defensa y Justicia26910731:3237
16Gimnasia Mendoza261061028:3136
17CA Sarmiento261121330:3635
18CA Talleres de Córdoba27971128:3134
19CA San Lorenzo de Almagro27810920:2434
20CA Tigre26711827:2432
21Barracas Central2588919:2132
22Racing Club de Avellaneda28881230:3332
23Newell's Old Boys26710926:3531
24CA Tucuman26691122:2627
25CA Banfield25751327:3426
26Platense265101119:3025
27Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero26661418:3424
28Riestra253121013:1921
29CA Aldosivi262101418:3516
30Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2525189:3511

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.