Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.80
No44%
ours 2.25
All matches
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HFC ADO Den Haag — SC Heerenveen, Eredivisie
Netherlands, Eredivisie
HFC ADO Den Haag
2.9DLLDLSC Heerenveen
2.0WDLDLOutcome probability
292943
HFC ADO Den Haag29%Draw29%SC Heerenveen43%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1HFC ADO Den Haag3.49—
XDraw3.48—
2SC Heerenveen2.35—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricHFC ADO Den HaagSC HeerenveenCombined
Goals scored0.831.332.16
Conceded1.330.832.16
Corners10.011.510.8
Cards2.30.83.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
HFC ADO Den HaagSC Heerenveen2Matches in 14 days117Table position1047.50%Possession55.80%7.2Days of rest8 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SC Heerenveen travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 43%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
71%
Form and context
HFC ADO Den Haag
- homeSC Cambuur Leeuwarden1:1
- awayFC Twente0:2
- homeFortuna Sittard2:3
- awayFeyenoord Rotterdam2:2
- awayGo Ahead Eagles1:3
SC Heerenveen
- awaySparta Rotterdam4:0
- homeSC Telstar0:0
- homeAlkmaar Zaanstreek2:3
- awayWillem II2:2
- homePEC Zwolle0:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
FC Groningen732215:1311
FC Groningen732215:13119
Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
Go Ahead Eagles724116:141010SC Heerenveen723211:99
SC Heerenveen723211:9911
Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie722312:138
Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie722312:13812
Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
Sparta Rotterdam712410:17513
SC Telstar71245:125
SC Telstar71245:12514
SC Cambuur Leeuwarden712410:195
SC Cambuur Leeuwarden712410:19515
FC Utrecht712411:245
FC Utrecht712411:24516
PEC Zwolle71156:204
PEC Zwolle71156:20417HFC ADO Den Haag70257:172
HFC ADO Den Haag70257:17218
Willem II70256:202
Willem II70256:202