SC Telstar — HFC ADO Den Haag, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieOctober 11 at 12:30 PM

SC Telstar

1.8LDLDL

—

HFC ADO Den Haag

2.9DLLDL

Outcome probability

452926

SC Telstar45%Draw29%HFC ADO Den Haag26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1SC Telstar45%2.21—

XDraw29%3.47—

2HFC ADO Den Haag26%3.87—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.07

No52%

ours 1.94

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSC TelstarHFC ADO Den HaagCombined

Goals scored0.501.171.67

Conceded1.832.504.33

Corners9.89.29.5

Cards1.31.83.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
SC TelstarHFC ADO Den Haag
13Table position17
42.80%Possession49.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
SC Telstar look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans