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Hamburger SV 2:1 Koln, Bundesliga: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Germany, BundesligaMatch finished

1.6LLWWW
2:1HT 1:0
1.4DDLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
36%26%38%
Hamburger SVPrice 2.8036%DrawPrice 3.6826%KolnPrice 2.5938%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.33xG1.75
32Possession, %68
12Shots18
7Shots on target5
3Corners5
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
12Fouls14
2Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 83 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Koln38%

    Actual: Hamburger SV — we had 36%

  • Total goals Landed
    Over 2.555%
  • Both teams to score Landed
    Yes59%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Hamburger SV36%35%2.802.80+0.5
XDraw26%27%3.783.68-0.2
2Koln38%38%2.642.59-0.3

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Hamburger SV

  • awayEintracht Frankfurt1:3
  • awayPaderborn0:1
  • homeStuttgart1:0
  • awayHoffenheim3:2
  • homeKoln2:1

Koln

  • awayUnion Berlin1:1
  • homeSchalke 040:0
  • awayEintracht Frankfurt0:1
  • homeBorussia Monchengladbach2:1
  • awayHamburger SV1:2

Head to head

  • 09/19/26Bundesliga2:1
  • 03/14/26Bundesliga1:1
  • 11/02/25Bundesliga1:4
  • 01/18/252. Bundesliga1:0
  • 08/02/242. Bundesliga2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Stuttgart830514:159
12Hoffenheim830514:169
13Koln82339:129
14Paderborn82336:99
15Hamburger SV83057:199
16Union Berlin81437:197
17Schalke 0481344:96

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.