All matches

Union Berlin — Koln, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

Union Berlin
1.5LLLDW
—
Koln
1.7LDLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
43%25%32%
Union Berlin43%Draw25%Koln32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Union Berlin43%2.34—
XDraw25%3.95—
2Koln32%3.13—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.63

No39%

ours 2.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUnion BerlinKolnCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded2.331.173.50
Corners10.713.011.8
Cards2.72.75.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Union BerlinKoln

1. FC Union Berlin 43%, 1. FC Köln 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

1. FC Union Berlin 43%Draw 25%1. FC Köln 32%
1st half
36 · 37 · 28
2nd half
34 · 37 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Union Berlin

  • awayBayern Munich0:7
  • homeSchalke 041:3
  • awayBayer Leverkusen0:4
  • homeEintracht Frankfurt3:3
  • homeAugsburg4:0

Koln

  • awayHamburger SV1:2
  • homeWerder Bremen1:1
  • awayStuttgart1:4
  • homeHoffenheim3:2
  • awayBayern Munich1:5

Head to head

  • 05/02/26Bundesliga2:2
  • 12/20/25Bundesliga1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Schalke 0441213:45
12Paderborn41123:54
13Koln41126:94
14Hoffenheim41037:103
15Stuttgart41036:93
16Hamburger SV41032:133
17Union Berlin40134:171
18Borussia Monchengladbach40046:160

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.