Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.97
No49%
ours 2.03
All matches
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Grobina — Riga, Virsliga
Latvia, Virsliga
Grobina
0.6DDLWL
Riga
4.3WWDDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
14%77%
Grobina8%Draw14%Riga77%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Grobina12.05—
XDraw7.01—
2Riga1.29—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGrobinaRigaCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.330.000.33
Corners8.58.08.3
Cards3.04.07.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
GrobinaRiga
Grobinas Sporta Centrs 8%, Riga FC 77%. The safest is “Riga FC or draw” at 89%.
Grobinas Sporta Centrs 8%Draw 14%Riga FC 77%
1st half
18 · 32 · 49
2nd half
16 · 34 · 50
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Grobina
- awayTukums1:1
- homeFS Jelgava0:0
- awayAuda Riga0:1
- homeDaugavpils1:0
- awayLiepaja1:3
Riga
- awayFS Jelgava1:0
- awaySuper Nova1:0
- homeAuda Riga2:2
- homeDaugavpils1:1
- awayLiepaja2:3
Head to head
- 08/02/26Virsliga0:4
- 05/29/26Virsliga0:2
- 04/18/26Virsliga0:3
- 11/02/25Virsliga1:1
- 08/10/25Virsliga0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
RFS30235271:2274
RFS30235271:22742Riga31227286:3073
Riga31227286:30733
Auda Riga31187649:3061
Auda Riga31187649:30614
Liepaja311271241:4343
Liepaja311271241:43435
Daugavpils311091235:3539
Daugavpils311091235:35396
Super Nova301051529:4035
Super Nova301051529:40357
FS Jelgava31881532:4932
FS Jelgava31881532:49328Grobina315111521:5226
Grobina315111521:52269
Tukums31591744:6124
Tukums31591744:612410
Ogre United31462130:7618
Ogre United31462130:7618Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.