Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.67
No40%
ours 2.48
All matches
—
Grobina — Ogre United, Virsliga
Latvia, Virsliga
Grobina
0.6DDLWL
Ogre United
1.0WLDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
44%25%31%
Grobina44%Draw25%Ogre United31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Grobina2.29—
XDraw3.99—
2Ogre United3.21—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricGrobinaOgre UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners8.611.810.2
Cards2.82.85.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
GrobinaOgre United
Grobinas Sporta Centrs 44%, Ogre United 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Grobinas Sporta Centrs 44%Draw 25%Ogre United 31%
1st half
39 · 34 · 27
2nd half
34 · 39 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Grobina
- awayTukums1:1
- homeFS Jelgava0:0
- awayAuda Riga0:1
- homeDaugavpils1:0
- awayLiepaja1:3
Ogre United
- homeSuper Nova1:0
- awayAuda Riga0:1
- homeLiepaja2:2
- awayTukums1:2
- homeRFS0:3
Head to head
- 07/27/26Virsliga2:2
- 05/25/26Virsliga1:1
- 04/13/26Virsliga1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Super Nova301051529:4035
Super Nova301051529:40357
FS Jelgava31881532:4932
FS Jelgava31881532:49328Grobina315111521:5226
Grobina315111521:52269
Tukums31591744:6124
Tukums31591744:612410Ogre United31462130:7618
Ogre United31462130:7618Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.