Tukums — Riga, Virsliga

Latvia, VirsligaOctober 10 at 11:00 AM

Tukums

0.7DLWLL

—

Riga

4.3WWDDL

Outcome probability

Tukums6%Draw11%Riga83%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Tukums6%16.39—

XDraw11%8.83—

2Riga83%1.21—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.00

No50%

ours 2.00

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTukumsRigaCombined

Goals scored0.671.502.17

Conceded2.001.173.17

Corners8.09.08.5

Cards2.72.04.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
TukumsRiga
9Table position2
45.70%Possession60.50%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Riga FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 83%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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