All matches

Super Nova — Grobina, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

Super Nova
1.2LLWWD
—
Grobina
0.6DDLWL
Outcome probability
542520
Super Nova54%Draw25%Grobina20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Super Nova54%44%1.842.29+10.8
XDraw25%28%3.933.55-2.7
2Grobina20%38%4.982.60-18.4

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes38%

ours 2.66

No62%

ours 1.60

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSuper NovaGrobinaCombined
Goals scored0.500.671.17
Conceded0.501.832.33
Corners11.08.39.7
Cards1.82.74.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Super NovaGrobina

SK Super Nova 54%, Grobinas Sporta Centrs 20%. The safest is “SK Super Nova or draw” at 83%.

SK Super Nova 54%Draw 25%Grobinas Sporta Centrs 20%
1st half
37 · 44 · 19
2nd half
46 · 42 · 12

Bookmakers: 2.29 · 3.55 · 2.60

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 1.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Super Nova

  • awayOgre United0:1
  • homeRiga0:1
  • homeTukums1:0
  • awayFS Jelgava1:0
  • awayAuda Riga1:1

Grobina

  • awayTukums1:1
  • homeFS Jelgava0:0
  • awayAuda Riga0:1
  • homeDaugavpils1:0
  • awayLiepaja1:3

Head to head

  • 07/20/26Virsliga2:0
  • 05/20/26Virsliga2:0
  • 04/09/26Virsliga1:0
  • 10/18/25Virsliga0:0
  • 07/26/25Virsliga0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035
7FS Jelgava31881532:4932
8Grobina315111521:5226
9Tukums31591744:6124
10Ogre United31462130:7618

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.