Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.81
No45%
ours 2.23
All matches
—
Venezia — Napoli, Serie A
Italy, Serie A
Venezia
0.9LLLLL
Napoli
3.1DWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
17%20%62%
Venezia17%Draw20%Napoli62%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Venezia5.72—
XDraw4.89—
2Napoli1.61—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricVeneziaNapoliCombined
Goals scored0.670.671.34
Conceded2.170.833.00
Corners7.010.08.5
Cards3.21.04.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
VeneziaNapoli
Venezia FC 17%, SSC Napoli 62%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Venezia FC 17%Draw 20%SSC Napoli 62%
1st half
27 · 39 · 34
2nd half
26 · 36 · 38
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Venezia
- homeLazio0:2
- homeFiorentina2:4
- awayFrosinone2:3
- awayAC Milan0:2
- homeLecce0:2
Napoli
- awayFiorentina1:1
- homeBologna1:0
- homeArsenal0:1
- awayInter Milan2:3
- homeComo1:2
Head to head
- 03/16/25Serie A0:0
- 12/29/24Serie A0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Juventus53118:410
Juventus53118:4108
Como53119:610
Como53119:6109Napoli52127:67
Napoli52127:6710
Sassuolo52129:97
Sassuolo52129:9711
Atalanta52035:76
Atalanta52035:7612
Lecce52035:106
Lecce52035:10613
Udinese51138:114
Udinese51138:11414
Torino51135:84
Torino51135:8415
Parma51134:74
Parma51134:7416
Monza51138:124
Monza51138:12417
Fiorentina51136:124
Fiorentina51136:12418
Bologna50233:62
Bologna50233:6219
Genoa50143:101
Genoa50143:10120Venezia50054:130
Venezia50054:130Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.