Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.87
No47%
ours 2.14
All matches
—
Van — Ararat Yerevan, Armenian Premier League
Armenia, Armenian Premier League
Van
1.6LWLLD
Ararat Yerevan
0.7WWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
49%25%26%
Van49%Draw25%Ararat Yerevan26%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Van2.05—
XDraw4.00—
2Ararat Yerevan3.81—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricVanArarat YerevanCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded1.830.832.66
Corners6.85.05.9
Cards0.32.02.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
VanArarat Yerevan
FK Van 49%, FC Ararat Yerevan 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
FK Van 49%Draw 25%FC Ararat Yerevan 26%
1st half
35 · 41 · 24
2nd half
34 · 38 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Van
- awayArtsakh0:2
- homeCSKA Yerevan2:1
- awayAlashkert0:4
- homeShirak0:4
- homeGandzasar1:1
Ararat Yerevan
- awayGandzasar1:0
- awayGandzasar Kapan2:0
- homeAvan Academy0:1
- awayArtsakh0:4
- homePyunik0:2
Head to head
- 04/04/26Armenian Premier League2:1
- 03/07/26Armenian Premier League1:2
- 08/09/25Armenian Premier League1:0
- 05/08/25Armenian Premier League1:2
- 11/05/24Armenian Premier League4:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Urartu832312:1011
Urartu832312:10117
Shirak831411:1010
Shirak831411:10108Ararat Yerevan83056:139
Ararat Yerevan83056:1399
CSKA Yerevan82248:108
CSKA Yerevan82248:10810Van81164:214
Van81164:21411
Gandzasar Kapan81078:203
Gandzasar Kapan81078:20312
Gandzasar80263:172
Gandzasar80263:172Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.