All matches

Van — Gandzasar Kapan, Armenian Premier League

Armenia, Armenian Premier League

Van
1.6LWLLD
—
Gandzasar Kapan
0.3LLLLL
Outcome probability
552619
Van55%Draw26%Gandzasar Kapan19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Van55%1.82—
XDraw26%3.90—
2Gandzasar Kapan19%5.14—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.11

No53%

ours 1.90

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricVanGandzasar KapanCombined
Goals scored0.500.330.83
Conceded2.332.504.83
Corners7.810.79.3
Cards0.71.72.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    VanGandzasar Kapan
    10Table position11
    44.80%Possession47.50%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FK Van: a home win is rated at 55%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Van

  • awayArtsakh0:2
  • homeCSKA Yerevan2:1
  • awayAlashkert0:4
  • homeShirak0:4
  • homeGandzasar1:1

Gandzasar Kapan

  • homeUrartu0:3
  • homeArarat Yerevan0:2
  • awayArtsakh2:3
  • homeCSKA Yerevan0:3
  • awayAlashkert0:3

Head to head

  • 05/02/26Armenian Premier League1:0
  • 11/09/25Armenian Premier League2:1
  • 09/12/25Armenian Premier League0:1
  • 05/12/25Armenian Premier League2:1
  • 04/06/25Armenian Premier League2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Ararat Yerevan83056:139
9CSKA Yerevan82248:108
10Van81164:214
11Gandzasar Kapan81078:203
12Gandzasar80263:172

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.