All matches

Ararat Yerevan — Shirak, Armenian Premier League

Armenia, Armenian Premier League

Ararat Yerevan
0.7WWLLL
—
Shirak
0.9LLWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
39%26%36%
Ararat Yerevan39%Draw26%Shirak36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ararat Yerevan39%2.59—
XDraw26%3.92—
2Shirak36%2.79—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.14

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricArarat YerevanShirakCombined
Goals scored0.501.171.67
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners5.514.29.8
Cards2.51.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Ararat YerevanShirak

FC Ararat Yerevan 39%, Shirak FC 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

FC Ararat Yerevan 39%Draw 26%Shirak FC 36%
1st half
30 · 43 · 27
2nd half
33 · 37 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Ararat Yerevan

  • awayGandzasar1:0
  • awayGandzasar Kapan2:0
  • homeAvan Academy0:1
  • awayArtsakh0:4
  • homePyunik0:2

Shirak

  • homeAvan Academy1:3
  • awayPyunik0:2
  • homeSardarapat2:0
  • awayVan4:0
  • homeUrartu0:1

Head to head

  • 05/01/26Armenian Premier League2:0
  • 11/09/25Armenian Premier League0:0
  • 09/12/25Armenian Premier League2:4
  • 04/08/25Armenian Premier League3:1
  • 04/04/25Armenian Premier League1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Sardarapat833214:1212
6Urartu832312:1011
7Shirak831411:1010
8Ararat Yerevan83056:139
9CSKA Yerevan82248:108
10Van81164:214

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.