All matches

Jablonec — Viktoria Plzen, First League

Czech Republic, First League

Jablonec
2.5DLWLD
—
Viktoria Plzen
3.0LLLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
37%25%38%
Jablonec37%Draw25%Viktoria Plzen38%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Jablonec37%2.69—
XDraw25%4.00—
2Viktoria Plzen38%2.64—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.66

No40%

ours 2.50

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricJablonecViktoria PlzenCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners11.011.511.3
Cards1.32.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

JablonecViktoria Plzen

FK Jablonec 37%, FC Viktoria Plzeň 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

FK Jablonec 37%Draw 25%FC Viktoria Plzeň 38%
1st half
34 · 35 · 31
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 4.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Jablonec

  • homeFASTAV Zlin1:1
  • awaySparta Prague0:2
  • homeBanik Ostrava3:0
  • homeSlovan Liberec1:2
  • awayBohemians 19051:1

Viktoria Plzen

  • awaySlavia Prague1:2
  • homeUnion Saint-Gilloise0:3
  • homeSigma Olomouc2:3
  • awayHradec Kralove0:0
  • awayLisen3:0

Head to head

  • 05/17/26First League0:5
  • 11/23/25First League3:3
  • 07/26/25First League1:1
  • 05/24/25First League1:4
  • 12/01/24First League2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Zbrojovka Brno951312:1216
7Sparta Prague950418:1215
8Jablonec942311:914
9Hradec Kralove94238:914
10Viktoria Plzen924317:1710
11Banik Ostrava93157:1710
12Bohemians 190582339:119

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.