All matches

Viktoria Plzen — Mlada Boleslav, First League

Czech Republic, First League

Viktoria Plzen
3.0LLLDW
—
Mlada Boleslav
1.8WLWWD
Outcome probability
632017
Viktoria Plzen63%Draw20%Mlada Boleslav17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Viktoria Plzen63%68%1.581.48-4.4
XDraw20%22%4.914.60-1.4
2Mlada Boleslav17%19%6.065.36-2.1

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.61book 1.52

No38%

ours 2.63book 2.37

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricViktoria PlzenMlada BoleslavCombined
Goals scored1.171.833.00
Conceded1.500.832.33
Corners10.310.810.6
Cards2.21.23.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Viktoria PlzenMlada Boleslav
    10Table position3
    49.00%Possession51.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Viktoria Plzeň: a home win is rated at 63%. Bookmakers price this at 1.48.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 2.5

67%1.38
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Viktoria Plzen

  • awaySlavia Prague1:2
  • homeUnion Saint-Gilloise0:3
  • homeSigma Olomouc2:3
  • awayHradec Kralove0:0
  • awayLisen3:0

Mlada Boleslav

  • homeZbrojovka Brno2:0
  • awaySlovan Liberec0:3
  • homeBanik Ostrava4:0
  • homeSlovacko2:1
  • awayPardubice1:1

Head to head

  • 11/30/25First League2:1
  • 08/19/25First League5:0
  • 03/02/25First League2:0
  • 09/29/24First League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Slavia Prague972025:623
2Slovan Liberec962113:420
3Mlada Boleslav852117:917
4Sigma Olomouc951316:1316
5Teplice951317:1516
6Zbrojovka Brno951312:1216
7Sparta Prague950418:1215
8Jablonec942311:914
9Hradec Kralove94238:914
10Viktoria Plzen924317:1710
11Banik Ostrava93157:1710
12Bohemians 190582339:119

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.