All matches

FC Zürich — FC Luzern, Super League

Switzerland, Super League

FC Zürich
1.2DWDLW
—
FC Luzern
1.9WLDWD
Outcome probability
292546
FC Zürich29%Draw25%FC Luzern46%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Zürich29%3.40—
XDraw25%4.05—
2FC Luzern46%2.18—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes69%

ours 1.45

No31%

ours 3.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC ZürichFC LuzernCombined
Goals scored1.672.173.84
Conceded1.671.673.34
Corners9.810.610.2
Cards2.22.64.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC ZürichFC Luzern
    7Table position6
    47.20%Possession45.20%
    14Days of rest14
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Luzern travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 4.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Zürich

  • awayFC Sion1:1
  • homeFC Vaduz2:1
  • awayGrasshopper Club Zürich2:2
  • homeBSC Young Boys2:4
  • awayFC Lausanne Sport3:2

FC Luzern

  • homeGrasshopper Club Zürich5:1
  • homeFC Basel 18932:4
  • awayBSC Young Boys3:3
  • homeFC Vaduz2:1
  • awayServette FC1:1

Head to head

  • 05/12/26Super League0:1
  • 02/14/26Super League1:4
  • 11/08/25Super League3:2
  • 08/03/25Super League1:1
  • 03/15/25Super League3:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FC Basel 1893941417:1713
5FC Sankt Gallen 1879941416:1913
6FC Luzern933317:1812
7FC Zürich932414:2011
8Servette FC931511:1310
9FC Thun931515:2310

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.