All matches

FC Utrecht — PEC Zwolle, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

FC Utrecht
2.3LWDLD
—
PEC Zwolle
1.4LLDLW
Outcome probability
652114
FC Utrecht65%Draw21%PEC Zwolle14%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Utrecht65%1.55—
XDraw21%4.74—
2PEC Zwolle14%6.99—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.65

No39%

ours 2.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC UtrechtPEC ZwolleCombined
Goals scored1.000.501.50
Conceded2.502.505.00
Corners10.313.511.9
Cards2.31.33.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC UtrechtPEC Zwolle
    15Table position16
    5.9Days of rest6.2
    43.30%Possession45.50%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Utrecht: a home win is rated at 65%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Utrecht

  • awayFeyenoord Rotterdam0:5
  • awaySBV Excelsior2:1
  • homeGo Ahead Eagles3:3
  • homePSV Eindhoven1:6
  • awaySparta Rotterdam3:3

PEC Zwolle

  • awayFC Groningen0:3
  • homeFeyenoord Rotterdam0:7
  • awaySparta Rotterdam2:2
  • homeNijmegen Eendracht Combinatie1:3
  • awaySC Heerenveen2:0

Head to head

  • 02/22/26Eredivisie1:1
  • 08/31/25Eredivisie2:0
  • 02/01/25Eredivisie3:3
  • 08/11/24Eredivisie1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13SC Telstar71245:125
14SC Cambuur Leeuwarden712410:195
15FC Utrecht712411:245
16PEC Zwolle71156:204
17HFC ADO Den Haag70257:172
18Willem II70256:202

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.