All matches

FC Schalke 04 — 1. FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

FC Schalke 04
2.4DWDLW
—
1. FSV Mainz 05
2.3WLWDW
Outcome probability
382934
FC Schalke 0438%Draw29%1. FSV Mainz 0534%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Schalke 0438%2.66—
XDraw29%3.46—
21. FSV Mainz 0534%2.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.34

No57%

ours 1.74

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Schalke 041. FSV Mainz 05Combined
Goals scored0.672.002.67
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners9.810.09.9
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Schalke 041. FSV Mainz 05
    11Table position6
    5.9Days of rest7
    42.60%Possession50.20%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Schalke 04 look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Schalke 04

  • homeSV 07 Elversberg0:0
  • away1. FC Union Berlin3:1
  • homeFC Bayern München0:0
  • awayFC Augsburg0:3
  • homeBraunschweiger TSV Eintracht 18951:0

1. FSV Mainz 05

  • awayBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach4:3
  • homeEintracht Frankfurt1:3
  • awayHamburger SV5:0
  • homeSC Paderborn 070:0
  • away1. FC Heidenheim 18462:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4FC Augsburg421111:67
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
61. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
7SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
8SV Werder Bremen42118:87
9Rasen Ballsport Leipzig42029:56
10Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
11FC Schalke 0441213:45
12SC Paderborn 0741123:54
131. FC Köln41126:94

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.