All matches

1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Bundesliga

Germany, Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05
2.3WLWDW
—
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
3.1WWDWL
Outcome probability
282646
1. FSV Mainz 0528%Draw26%Bayer 04 Leverkusen46%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
11. FSV Mainz 0528%3.57—
XDraw26%3.80—
2Bayer 04 Leverkusen46%2.19—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.65

No40%

ours 2.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 LeverkusenCombined
Goals scored2.172.174.34
Conceded1.501.002.50
Corners10.811.511.2
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    1. FSV Mainz 05Bayer 04 Leverkusen
    6Table position5
    50.70%Possession60.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Bayer 04 Leverkusen still look stronger — an away win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

1. FSV Mainz 05

  • awayBorussia VfL Mönchengladbach4:3
  • homeEintracht Frankfurt1:3
  • awayHamburger SV5:0
  • homeSC Paderborn 070:0
  • away1. FC Heidenheim 18462:0

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

  • homeRasen Ballsport Leipzig2:0
  • homeNK Celje2:0
  • awayFC Augsburg2:2
  • home1. FC Union Berlin4:0
  • awaySV 07 Elversberg2:3

Head to head

  • 02/28/26Bundesliga1:1
  • 10/18/25Bundesliga3:4
  • 05/17/25Bundesliga2:2
  • 01/14/25Bundesliga0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3SC Freiburg431012:310
4FC Augsburg421111:67
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen421110:57
61. FSV Mainz 05421110:67
7SV 07 Elversberg42118:77
8SV Werder Bremen42118:87

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.