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Porto 3:1 Benfica, Liga NOS: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Portugal, Liga NOSMatch finished

3.7WWLLW
3:1HT 1:0
3.6WWWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
40%27%33%
Porto40%Draw27%Benfica33%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

2.06xG1.17
45Possession, %55
20Shots12
7Shots on target3
3Corners3
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
17Fouls12
2Offsides0

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 69 of 99void — 1
  • Match result Landed
    Porto40%
  • Total goals Missed
    Under 2.558%

    Actual: Over 2.5 — we had 42%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    No52%

    Actual: Yes — we had 48%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Porto40%2.50—
XDraw27%3.68—
2Benfica33%3.05—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Porto

  • homeEstoril4:0
  • awayGil Vicente1:0
  • homePSV0:1
  • awayReal Betis2:3
  • awayMaritimo2:1

Benfica

  • awaySanta Clara2:1
  • awayOmonia4:1
  • homeCeltic4:1
  • homeVitoria Guimaraes2:0
  • awayPorto1:3

Head to head

  • 09/20/26Liga NOS3:1
  • 03/08/26Liga NOS2:2
  • 10/05/25Liga NOS0:0
  • 04/06/25Liga NOS1:4
  • 11/10/24Liga NOS1:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Porto10100025:430
2Benfica971126:822
3Sporting CP1063123:1121
4Santa Clara1063115:621

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.