Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.88
No47%
ours 2.14
All matches
—
Benfica — Alverca, Liga NOS
Portugal, Liga NOS
Benfica
4.0LWWWW
Alverca
2.1WWLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
78%16%
Benfica78%Draw16%Alverca6%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Benfica1.28—
XDraw6.22—
2Alverca18.12—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBenficaAlvercaCombined
Goals scored0.501.001.50
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners8.57.88.1
Cards4.51.86.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BenficaAlverca
SL Benfica 78%, Alverca 6%. The safest is “SL Benfica or draw” at 92%.
SL Benfica 78%Draw 16%Alverca 6%
1st half
54 · 35 · 11
2nd half
53 · 31 · 16
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Benfica
- awayPorto1:3
- awayAC Milan2:0
- homeGil Vicente3:1
- awayMoreirense4:0
- awayMaritimo3:0
Alverca
- homeRio Ave1:0
- awayNacional3:1
- homeBraga1:2
- homeSanta Clara1:1
- awaySporting CP1:3
Head to head
- 02/08/26Liga NOS2:1
- 08/31/25Liga NOS2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Porto770018:321
Porto770018:3212Benfica751122:716
Benfica751122:7163
Sporting CP743017:815
Sporting CP743017:8154
Santa Clara743011:415
Santa Clara743011:4155
Arouca732210:711
Arouca732210:7116
Braga63217:511
Braga63217:5117
Academico de Viseu73229:911
Academico de Viseu73229:9118
Estrela Amadora724114:1410
Estrela Amadora724114:14109
Gil Vicente62225:58
Gil Vicente62225:5810Alverca72239:118
Alverca72239:11811
Maritimo72238:128
Maritimo72238:12812
Moreirense72238:148
Moreirense72238:148Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.