All matches

Gil Vicente — Vitoria Guimaraes, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOS

Gil Vicente
1.8DLLDW
—
Vitoria Guimaraes
2.0DLDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
45%27%27%
Gil Vicente45%Draw27%Vitoria Guimaraes27%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Gil Vicente45%2.20—
XDraw27%3.69—
2Vitoria Guimaraes27%3.64—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.13

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGil VicenteVitoria GuimaraesCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.830.671.50
Corners9.710.09.8
Cards1.32.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Gil VicenteVitoria Guimaraes

Gil Vicente FC 45%, Vitória Guimarães SC 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Gil Vicente FC 45%Draw 27%Vitória Guimarães SC 27%
1st half
36 · 43 · 21
2nd half
30 · 39 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Gil Vicente

  • homeMaritimo1:1
  • awayBenfica1:3
  • homeAcademico de Viseu0:1
  • awayFamalicao0:0
  • homeCasa Pia2:0

Vitoria Guimaraes

  • homeMoreirense1:1
  • awayAcademico de Viseu1:2
  • homeCasa Pia0:0
  • awayBraga0:1
  • homeNacional1:0

Head to head

  • 04/18/26Liga NOS0:1
  • 12/08/25Liga NOS0:0
  • 04/11/25Liga NOS0:1
  • 12/02/24Liga NOS0:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7Academico de Viseu73229:911
8Estrela Amadora724114:1410
9Gil Vicente62225:58
10Alverca72239:118
11Maritimo72238:128
12Moreirense72238:148
13Famalicao71429:77
14Vitoria Guimaraes71245:85
15Nacional71157:154
16Rio Ave71155:154

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.