All matches

FC Juárez — Club Atlante, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

FC Juárez
1.2LWLLL
—
Club Atlante
1.8WDLDD
Outcome probability
332740
FC Juárez33%Draw27%Club Atlante40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Juárez33%3.07—
XDraw27%3.70—
2Club Atlante40%2.48—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC JuárezClub AtlanteCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded1.001.172.17
Corners9.59.89.6
Cards3.31.85.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC JuárezClub Atlante
    2.9Days of rest3.9
    18Table position14
    46.50%Possession44.50%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Club Atlante still look stronger — an away win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Juárez

  • awayClub León1:2
  • homeTigres UANL2:0
  • awayClub Santos Laguna1:2
  • homeCF Pachuca0:2
  • awayDeportivo Toluca FC0:4

Club Atlante

  • homeCF Monterrey4:2
  • awayPuebla FC1:1
  • homeCF Pachuca0:3
  • awayCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1:1
  • homeClub León1:1

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511
15Tigres UANL1024410:1310
16Club Santos Laguna1031610:1510
17Club Necaxa1022612:208
18FC Juárez101097:253

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.