FC Juárez — Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 10 at 11:00 PM

FC Juárez

1.2LWLLL

—

Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente

2.2LDLWL

Outcome probability

292645

FC Juárez29%Draw26%Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Juárez29%3.44—

XDraw26%3.83—

2Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente45%2.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.65

No39%

ours 2.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC JuárezClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de CalienteCombined

Goals scored0.831.672.50

Conceded2.002.004.00

Corners9.711.810.8

Cards3.21.54.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC JuárezClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente
1Matches in 14 days0
18Table position8
12.9Days of rest14
43.70%Possession46.00%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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