All matches

Club Atlante — Club Universidad Nacional, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club Atlante
1.8WDLDD
—
Club Universidad Nacional
2.2LDLWL
Outcome probability
402733
Club Atlante40%Draw27%Club Universidad Nacional33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Atlante40%2.49—
XDraw27%3.66—
2Club Universidad Nacional33%3.08—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.14

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub AtlanteClub Universidad NacionalCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded1.331.673.00
Corners9.011.210.1
Cards1.81.23.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club AtlanteClub Universidad Nacional
    6.2Days of rest5.1
    14Table position12
    45.20%Possession44.20%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club Atlante look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Atlante

  • homeCF Monterrey4:2
  • awayPuebla FC1:1
  • homeCF Pachuca0:3
  • awayCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1:1
  • homeClub León1:1

Club Universidad Nacional

  • homeAtlético San Luis2:3
  • awayCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1:1
  • awayCD Guadalajara0:3
  • homeClub León3:1
  • awayClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente0:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511
15Tigres UANL1024410:1310
16Club Santos Laguna1031610:1510

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.