FC Groningen — AFC Ajax, Eredivisie

Netherlands, EredivisieOctober 18 at 02:45 PM

FC Groningen

1.9WDDLL

—

AFC Ajax

3.3DWWLW

Outcome probability

232751

FC Groningen23%Draw27%AFC Ajax51%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Groningen23%4.44—

XDraw27%3.73—

2AFC Ajax51%1.97—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.27

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC GroningenAFC AjaxCombined

Goals scored1.502.173.67

Conceded1.831.173.00

Corners10.410.310.3

Cards1.02.33.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC GroningenAFC Ajax
7Days of rest2.9
1Matches in 14 days2
8Table position5
48.60%Possession67.30%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
AFC Ajax travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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