All matches

AFC Ajax — Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

AFC Ajax
3.3DWWLW
—
Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie
2.2DLLDL
Outcome probability
602317
AFC Ajax60%Draw23%Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1AFC Ajax60%1.66—
XDraw23%4.31—
2Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie17%5.98—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.44

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAFC AjaxNijmegen Eendracht CombinatieCombined
Goals scored3.671.174.84
Conceded1.672.504.17
Corners9.57.28.3
Cards1.51.73.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    AFC AjaxNijmegen Eendracht Combinatie
    5Table position11
    63.70%Possession56.70%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    AFC Ajax look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

AFC Ajax

  • homeSBV Excelsior2:2
  • homeWillem II5:1
  • awayFortuna Sittard5:1
  • homePSV Eindhoven1:3
  • awaySC Telstar4:0

Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie

  • homeGo Ahead Eagles1:1
  • awayJuventus FC0:5
  • awaySC Cambuur Leeuwarden0:3
  • homeSBV Excelsior2:2
  • homeFeyenoord Rotterdam1:3

Head to head

  • 02/21/26Eredivisie1:1
  • 12/20/25Eredivisie2:2
  • 05/11/25Eredivisie0:3
  • 12/01/24Eredivisie2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3PSV Eindhoven751124:1016
4FC Twente751115:716
5AFC Ajax742121:914
6Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
7SBV Excelsior732215:911
8FC Groningen732215:1311
9Go Ahead Eagles724116:1410
10SC Heerenveen723211:99
11Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie722312:138
12Sparta Rotterdam712410:175
13SC Telstar71245:125

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.