Estonia — Iceland, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations LeagueOctober 6 at 06:45 PM

Estonia

1.6DDLDL

—

Iceland

1.6WDLWD

Outcome probability

252352

Estonia25%Draw23%Iceland52%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Estonia25%3.97—

XDraw23%4.31—

2Iceland52%1.94—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.01

No50%

ours 1.99

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEstoniaIcelandCombined

Goals scored0.670.831.50

Conceded1.500.832.33

Corners8.311.09.6

Cards2.01.33.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
EstoniaIceland
31Table position12
41.50%Possession50.80%
3.1Days of rest3.1
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Iceland still look stronger — an away win is rated at 52%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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