UEFA Nations League

CroatiaВПВВП
—
EnglandПВПВВ
1Croatia38%model2.66
XDraw26%model3.82
2England36%model2.76

Goals

Corners

Cards

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

xG

Shots

Shots on target

Expected goals, corners, cards and referee data — with a subscription

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calculated at 21:07, 325 мс

Outcome

Croatia38%
Draw26%
England36%

Corners

Subscribers only

Total 2.5

Subscribers only

Both teams to score

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Model vs bookmaker value

Where the model disagrees with the bookmaker most.

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Model take on Croatia vs England

Built from the numbers: expected goals, form, rest, absences and referee records.

Croatia look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 38%.

Most likely scorelines:…

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What drives the numbers

Form, rest, fixture load and league position

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Recent matches

Croatia

WLWWL
  • awayCzech Republic2:1
  • awayPortugal1:2
  • homeGhana2:1
  • awayPanama1:0
  • awayEngland2:4

England

LWLWW
  • homeSpain2:3
  • awayFrance6:4
  • homeArgentina1:2
  • awayNorway2:1
  • awayMexico3:2

Head to head — score from the perspective of Croatia

  • 06/17/26away · World Cup2:4L
  • 07/11/18home · FIFA World Cup 2018 Russia2:1W

League table

League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
…
11Greece11002:13
12Montenegro11002:13
13Croatia11002:13
14Sweden11002:13
15Malta11002:13
16Luxembourg11002:13
17France11001:03
18Kosovo11001:03
19Northern Ireland11001:03
20Ukraine11001:03
21Portugal11001:03
22Germany10101:11
23Iceland10101:11
24Estonia10101:11
25Netherlands10101:11
26Kazakhstan10101:11
27Faroe Islands10101:11
28Slovenia10100:01
29Scotland10100:01
30Bosnia Herzegovina10100:01
31Poland10100:01
32England10012:30
33Denmark10012:30
34Czech Republic10011:20
…

Three scenarios

One pick from each odds range

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Markets in detail

Probabilities are a statistical estimate from past matches, not a prediction of the result.