All matches

CA Mineiro — Clube Atlético Bragantino, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

CA Mineiro
2.0DWLWD
—
Clube Atlético Bragantino
1.7LDLLW
Outcome probability
532621
CA Mineiro53%Draw26%Clube Atlético Bragantino21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CA Mineiro53%47%1.892.13+5.8
XDraw26%29%3.803.48-2.4
2Clube Atlético Bragantino21%28%4.803.51-7.6

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.07book 1.73

No52%

ours 1.94book 2.00

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCA MineiroClube Atlético BragantinoCombined
Goals scored1.501.172.67
Conceded0.831.502.33
Corners11.812.712.3
Cards2.02.34.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CA MineiroClube Atlético Bragantino
    0Matches in 14 days1
    7Table position10
    53.70%Possession48.20%
    14Days of rest13
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    CA Mineiro look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 53%. Bookmakers price this at 2.13.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

72%1.25
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CA Mineiro

  • homeChapecoense AF1:1
  • homeFluminense FC3:1
  • awaySão Paulo FC0:2
  • homeEC Vitória2:1
  • awaySC Internacional0:0

Clube Atlético Bragantino

  • awayCR Flamengo1:2
  • awayBotafogo FR1:1
  • homeEC Bahia2:3
  • awaySão Paulo FC1:2
  • homeGrêmio FB Porto Alegrense1:0

Head to head

  • 02/04/26Serie A0:1
  • 11/16/25Serie A0:2
  • 08/03/25Serie A2:1
  • 09/22/24Serie A3:0
  • 06/12/24Serie A2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5EC Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro EC28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro27117936:3240
8Santos FC Sao Paulo27108941:4038
9Coritiba FBC281081037:4338
10Clube Atlético Bragantino271061133:3136
11São Paulo FC271061132:3036
12Botafogo FR28981141:4535

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.