All matches

Clube Atlético Bragantino — Mirassol Futebol Clube, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Clube Atlético Bragantino
1.7LDLLW
—
Mirassol Futebol Clube
2.5WDWLD
Outcome probability
432730
Clube Atlético Bragantino43%Draw27%Mirassol Futebol Clube30%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Clube Atlético Bragantino43%55%2.301.82-11.6
XDraw27%27%3.703.77+0.5
2Mirassol Futebol Clube30%23%3.394.43+7.0

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88book 1.72

No47%

ours 2.14book 2.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClube Atlético BragantinoMirassol Futebol ClubeCombined
Goals scored1.001.332.33
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners12.611.812.2
Cards2.62.75.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Clube Atlético BragantinoMirassol Futebol Clube
    1Matches in 14 days0
    4Days of rest14
    10Table position15
    47.80%Possession51.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Clube Atlético Bragantino: a home win is rated at 43%. Bookmakers price this at 1.82.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Clube Atlético Bragantino

  • awayCR Flamengo1:2
  • awayBotafogo FR1:1
  • homeEC Bahia2:3
  • awaySão Paulo FC1:2
  • homeGrêmio FB Porto Alegrense1:0

Mirassol Futebol Clube

  • homeBotafogo FR2:0
  • homeEC Vitória2:2
  • awayCoritiba FBC2:1
  • awayCR Flamengo0:2
  • homeSE Palmeiras1:1

Head to head

  • 04/05/26Serie A1:0
  • 10/01/25Serie A1:1
  • 05/05/25Serie A1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Santos FC Sao Paulo27108941:4038
9Coritiba FBC281081037:4338
10Clube Atlético Bragantino271061133:3136
11São Paulo FC271061132:3036
12Botafogo FR28981141:4535
13EC Vitória28961328:4233
14SC Corinthians Paulista28881229:3232
15Mirassol Futebol Clube28881233:4232
16CR Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
17Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense28781330:3829

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.