Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71
No41%
ours 2.41
All matches
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Cruz Azul — Leon, Liga MX
Mexico, Liga MX
Cruz Azul
3.3DLWWW
Leon
1.5WDWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
64%22%14%
Cruz Azul64%Draw22%Leon14%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cruz Azul1.55—
XDraw4.65—
2Leon7.06—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCruz AzulLeonCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners9.57.08.3
Cards3.02.55.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Cruz AzulLeon
Cruz Azul FC 64%, Club León 14%. The safest is “Cruz Azul FC or draw” at 84%.
Cruz Azul FC 64%Draw 22%Club León 14%
1st half
45 · 37 · 18
2nd half
44 · 35 · 21
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Cruz Azul
- homeDeportivo Toluca3:3
- awayMonterrey0:1
- homeAmerica4:3
- homeSantos Laguna1:0
- awayNecaxa3:1
Leon
- homeJuarez2:1
- awayQueretaro1:1
- homeAtletico San Luis2:0
- awayPumas UNAM1:3
- awayAtlante1:1
Head to head
- 01/11/26Liga MX1:2
- 07/27/25Liga MX4:1
- 05/12/25Liga MX2:1
- 05/09/25Liga MX3:2
- 04/16/25Liga MX2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Guadalajara1053217:1018
Guadalajara1053217:10184
Queretaro952213:817
Queretaro952213:8175Leon1052314:1117
Leon1052314:11176
Atlas1052316:1717
Atlas1052316:17177Cruz Azul1051419:1816
Cruz Azul1051419:18168
Tijuana942314:1314
Tijuana942314:13149
Puebla1042411:1214
Puebla1042411:1214Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.