Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.66
No40%
ours 2.52
All matches
—
America — Deportivo Toluca, Liga MX
Mexico, Liga MX
America
2.8WDLWW
Deportivo Toluca
3.1DLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%25%29%
America46%Draw25%Deportivo Toluca29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1America2.16—
XDraw3.99—
2Deportivo Toluca3.50—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAmericaDeportivo TolucaCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded0.331.001.33
Corners8.011.09.5
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AmericaDeportivo Toluca
Club América 46%, Deportivo Toluca FC 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Club América 46%Draw 25%Deportivo Toluca FC 29%
1st half
33 · 39 · 29
2nd half
39 · 37 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
America
- awayNecaxa4:2
- homeGuadalajara2:2
- awayCruz Azul3:4
- homePuebla2:0
- awayJuarez2:1
Deportivo Toluca
- awayCruz Azul3:3
- homeSantos Laguna2:3
- awayPuebla1:0
- homeAtlas5:2
- homeJuarez4:0
Head to head
- 04/19/26Liga MX2:1
- 11/09/25Liga MX0:2
- 05/26/25Liga MX0:2
- 05/23/25Liga MX0:0
- 03/01/25Liga MX3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Deportivo Toluca1062223:1220
Deportivo Toluca1062223:12202America962121:1020
America962121:10203
Guadalajara1053217:1018
Guadalajara1053217:10184
Queretaro952213:817
Queretaro952213:817Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.