Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.61
No38%
ours 2.64
All matches
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Santos Laguna — Necaxa, Liga MX
Mexico, Liga MX
Santos Laguna
0.5WWWLD
Necaxa
1.4LLLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
44%25%31%
Santos Laguna44%Draw25%Necaxa31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Santos Laguna2.27—
XDraw4.02—
2Necaxa3.22—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSantos LagunaNecaxaCombined
Goals scored0.670.501.17
Conceded0.331.171.50
Corners13.57.510.5
Cards1.52.03.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Santos LagunaNecaxa
Club Santos Laguna 44%, Club Necaxa 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Club Santos Laguna 44%Draw 25%Club Necaxa 31%
1st half
39 · 37 · 24
2nd half
32 · 37 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Santos Laguna
- homePachuca1:0
- awayDeportivo Toluca3:2
- homeJuarez2:1
- awayCruz Azul0:1
- homeTigres UANL0:0
Necaxa
- homeAmerica2:4
- awayAtletico San Luis1:3
- homePuebla0:1
- awayTigres UANL1:1
- homeCruz Azul1:3
Head to head
- 01/11/26Liga MX1:3
- 11/01/25Liga MX1:4
- 02/08/25Liga MX2:3
- 09/02/24Liga MX3:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14
Atlante1025312:1511
Atlante1025312:151115
Tigres UANL1024410:1310
Tigres UANL1024410:131016Santos Laguna1031610:1510
Santos Laguna1031610:151017Necaxa1022612:208
Necaxa1022612:20818
Juarez101097:253
Juarez101097:253Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.