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Independiente Petrolero — Real Tomayapo, LFPB: match prediction and stats

Match prediction and stats

Bolivia, LFPB

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
53%25%22%
Independiente Petrolero53%Draw25%Real Tomayapo22%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Independiente Petrolero53%1.88—
XDraw25%4.04—
2Real Tomayapo22%4.55—

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Quick predictions

The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.62

No38%

ours 2.61

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals prediction

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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3839 matches

Corners prediction

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3828 matches

Cards prediction

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3818 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Independiente PetroleroReal Tomayapo

Club Independiente Petrolero 53%, CD Real Tomayapo 22%. The safest is “Club Independiente Petrolero or draw” at 78%.

Club Independiente Petrolero 53%Draw 25%CD Real Tomayapo 22%
1st half
36 · 41 · 23
2nd half
43 · 31 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total fouls: Over 20.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with Premium

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricIndependiente PetroleroReal TomayapoCombined
Goals scored1.200.401.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other nine metrics — with Premium

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Insights

What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.

Independiente Petrolero
  • Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
  • One win in the last 5 matches1:1, 4:2, 0:0, 0:2, 1:3
  • 15th of 16 for shots — 12.9 per match16 teams in the league
Real Tomayapo
  • Fewest shots on target in the league — 3.9 per match16 teams in the league
  • Only 2 goals in the last 5 matches0:1, 1:0, 0:0, 0:2, 1:2
  • Relegation zone: 16th of 16

Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.

Form and context

Independiente Petrolero

  • awayReal Potosi1:1
  • homeAcademia del Balompie4:2
  • awayBlooming0:0
  • awayAlways Ready0:2
  • homeCultural San Antonio de Bulo Bulo1:3

Real Tomayapo

  • awayAurora0:1
  • homeGualberto Villarroel Deportivo San Jose1:0
  • awayCultural San Antonio de Bulo Bulo0:0
  • homeOriente Petrolero0:2
  • homeBolivar1:2

Head to head

  • 07/12/26LFPB1:2
  • 09/27/25LFPB2:1
  • 05/17/25LFPB3:3
  • 12/04/24LFPB2:1
  • 08/08/24LFPB2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Aurora24811535:3135
7Nacional Potosi24951036:3232
9Guabira2386934:4730
10Blooming23610731:2528
11Real Oruro24841238:5728
13Universitario de Vinto23631430:4521
15Academia del Balompie23621533:5120
16Real Tomayapo23551316:4020

Full breakdown

Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.