Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.69
No41%
ours 2.44
All matches
Caernarfon Town vs Connah's Quay prediction
VARStats prediction for 20 November: Caernarfon Town 40%, Connah's Quay 35%, draw 25%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
40%25%35%
Caernarfon Town40%Draw25%Connah's Quay35%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Caernarfon Town2.53—
XDraw3.94—
2Connah's Quay2.85—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4407 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4392 matches
Cards prediction
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4375 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Caernarfon TownConnah's Quay
Caernarfon Town FC 40%, Connah's Quay Nomads FC 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Caernarfon Town FC 40%Draw 25%Connah's Quay Nomads FC 35%
1st half
29 · 39 · 32
2nd half
43 · 33 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total offsides: Under 4.5
71%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCaernarfon TownConnah's QuayCombined
Goals scored1.801.803.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Caernarfon Town- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
- 2nd in the league for shots on target — 6.7 per match16 teams in the league
- Led at half-time in 6 of 10 matches
Connah's Quay- 3 clean sheets in the last 50:0, 2:0, 2:1, 1:0, 4:1
- Unbeaten in 7 matches0:0, 2:0, 2:1, 1:0, 4:1
- 2.0 goals per game away7 matches
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Caernarfon Town
- awayAirbus UK2:3
- homeBriton Ferry Llansawel3:1
- awayHaverfordwest2:1
- homeBarry Town United0:1
- awayCardiff Metropolitan University2:2
Connah's Quay
- awayTNS0:0
- homeLlandudno2:0
- awayBriton Ferry Llansawel2:1
- homePenybont1:0
- awayBarry Town United4:1
Head to head
- 08/02/26Premier League2:1
- 03/13/26Premier League2:4
- 02/06/26Premier League1:1
- 01/13/26Premier League2:2
- 09/23/25Premier League2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Wales, Premier League: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.