Cardiff Metropolitan University — Penybont, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier LeagueOctober 31 at 12:30 PM

Cardiff Metropolitan University

1.9WWDLD

—

Penybont

2.5LWWWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

34%25%41%

Cardiff Metropolitan University34%Draw25%Penybont41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Cardiff Metropolitan University34%2.98—

XDraw25%4.00—

2Penybont41%2.41—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.24

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCardiff Metropolitan UniversityPenybontCombined

Goals scored0.671.672.34

Conceded0.500.831.33

Corners10.86.38.5

Cards1.02.83.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Cardiff Metropolitan UniversityPenybont

Cardiff Metropolitan University FC 34%, Penybont FC 41%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Cardiff Metropolitan University FC 34%Draw 25%Penybont FC 41%

1st half

30 · 40 · 30

2nd half

31 · 38 · 32

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

72%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context