All matches

TNS — Connah's Quay, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

TNS
3.7WWWWW
—
Connah's Quay
2.5WWWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
68%20%11%
TNS68%Draw20%Connah's Quay11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1TNS68%1.46—
XDraw20%4.90—
2Connah's Quay11%9.01—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93

No48%

ours 2.07

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTNSConnah's QuayCombined
Goals scored3.171.504.67
Conceded0.330.170.50
Corners11.510.310.9
Cards1.01.02.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

TNSConnah's Quay

The New Saints FC 68%, Connah's Quay Nomads FC 11%. The safest is “The New Saints FC or draw” at 88%.

The New Saints FC 68%Draw 20%Connah's Quay Nomads FC 11%
1st half
42 · 38 · 20
2nd half
51 · 34 · 15
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Home

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

TNS

  • homeCambrian & Clydach Vale9:0
  • awayTrefelin3:1
  • homeLlandudno2:1
  • homeFlint Town United5:0
  • awayAirbus UK2:0

Connah's Quay

  • homePenybont1:0
  • awayBarry Town United4:1
  • homeCardiff Metropolitan University1:0
  • homeAirbus UK3:0
  • awayColwyn Bay1:2

Head to head

  • 04/03/26Welsh Premier League2:1
  • 03/03/26Welsh Premier League2:1
  • 12/31/25Welsh Premier League1:3
  • 08/22/25Welsh Premier League3:0
  • 12/31/24Welsh Premier League2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1TNS12111038:534
2Connah's Quay1291228:828
3Penybont1283122:1027
4Barry Town United1281327:2025

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.