Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71
No41%
ours 2.42
All matches
CA Libertad — Emelec, Serie A
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%25%26%
CA Libertad48%Draw25%Emelec26%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
Available with PremiumUnlock
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CA Libertad2.07—
XDraw3.95—
2Emelec3.80—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
This market opens with Premium.
Over 9.5 corners
This market opens with Premium.
Goals and corners — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 3682 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 3671 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 3661 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CA LibertadEmelec
CA Libertad 48%, CS Emelec 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
CA Libertad 48%Draw 25%CS Emelec 26%
1st half
33 · 41 · 26
2nd half
42 · 30 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total fouls: Under 26.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCA LibertadEmelecCombined
Goals scored2.401.203.60
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other nine metrics — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
CA Libertad- 12 goals in the last 5 matches1:4, 4:0, 3:0, 2:1, 2:3
- Over 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 5
- 2.1 goals per game at home8 matches
Emelec- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches8 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches0:1, 3:1, 2:3, 1:2, 0:1
- 3 draws in the last 5 head-to-head meetings1:2, 1:1, 1:1, 2:1, 1:1
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
CA Libertad
- awayLeones del Norte1:4
- homeGuayaquil City4:0
- homeLeones del Norte3:0
- awayEmelec2:1
- homeIndependiente del Valle2:3
Emelec
- homeGuayaquil City0:1
- awayLeones del Norte3:1
- awayGuayaquil City2:3
- homeCA Libertad1:2
- awayMacara0:1
Head to head
- 09/20/26Serie A2:1
- 09/04/26Serie A1:1
- 05/10/26Serie A1:1
- 08/03/25Serie A1:2
- 04/12/25Serie A1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Ecuador, Serie A: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.