All matches

Emelec — Guayaquil City, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Emelec
1.8LLWDW
—
Guayaquil City
1.9DWLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
48%26%26%
Emelec48%Draw26%Guayaquil City26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Emelec48%2.10—
XDraw26%3.85—
2Guayaquil City26%3.79—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.85

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEmelecGuayaquil CityCombined
Goals scored0.501.171.67
Conceded0.671.171.84
Corners11.56.59.0
Cards2.02.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

EmelecGuayaquil City

CS Emelec 48%, Guayaquil City FC 26%. The safest is “CS Emelec or draw” at 77%.

CS Emelec 48%Draw 26%Guayaquil City FC 26%
1st half
45 · 38 · 17
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Emelec

  • homeCA Libertad1:2
  • awayMacara0:1
  • homeManta1:0
  • awayCA Libertad1:1
  • homeLeones del Norte2:1

Guayaquil City

  • homeLeones del Norte1:1
  • homeMushuc Runa3:1
  • awayOrense3:4
  • awayCuenca0:1
  • homeLDU Quito2:1

Head to head

  • 08/10/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:0
  • 04/18/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7CA Libertad311281135:3544
8Leones del Norte3110101132:3340
9Guayaquil City3110101134:3740
10Mushuc Runa319121036:3939
11Emelec311091226:3639
12Cuenca311071426:3837
13Orense31961637:4933

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.