Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82
No45%
ours 2.22
All matches
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Universidad Catolica del Ecuador — Aucas, Primera Categoría Serie A
Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
2.5LWWDD
Aucas
2.3LDDDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
54%25%21%
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador54%Draw25%Aucas21%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Universidad Catolica del Ecuador1.84—
XDraw4.04—
2Aucas4.80—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricUniversidad Catolica del EcuadorAucasCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners11.08.09.5
Cards0.01.31.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Universidad Catolica del EcuadorAucas
CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador 54%, SD Aucas 21%. The safest is “CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador or draw” at 79%.
CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador 54%Draw 25%SD Aucas 21%
1st half
39 · 39 · 23
2nd half
42 · 36 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
- awayLDU Quito1:2
- homeOrense2:1
- awayDelfin1:0
- homeAucas1:1
- awayIndependiente del Valle2:2
Aucas
- homeMacara1:2
- awayManta0:0
- homeBarcelona SC1:1
- awayUniversidad Catolica del Ecuador1:1
- homeCA Libertad1:0
Head to head
- 09/03/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:1
- 05/09/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:2
- 08/03/25Primera Categoría Serie A6:2
- 04/16/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:2
- 11/09/24Primera Categoría Serie A3:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Independiente del Valle30242473:3374
Independiente del Valle30242473:33742
Macara31166943:3454
Macara31166943:34543Universidad Catolica del Ecuador31149852:2951
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador31149852:29514Aucas31148934:3050
Aucas31148934:30505
LDU Quito311471033:2549
LDU Quito311471033:25496
Barcelona SC301111832:2544
Barcelona SC301111832:2544Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.