All matches

Macara — Barcelona SC, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

Macara
2.4WWLWW
—
Barcelona SC
2.6DDWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
49%26%26%
Macara49%Draw26%Barcelona SC26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Macara49%2.04—
XDraw26%3.91—
2Barcelona SC26%3.92—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.80

No45%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMacaraBarcelona SCCombined
Goals scored0.670.331.00
Conceded0.670.331.00
Corners9.011.510.3
Cards1.72.03.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MacaraBarcelona SC

CSD Macará 49%, Barcelona SC 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

CSD Macará 49%Draw 26%Barcelona SC 25%
1st half
38 · 38 · 24
2nd half
34 · 38 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Macara

  • awayAucas2:1
  • homeEmelec1:0
  • awayIndependiente del Valle1:3
  • homeManta4:3
  • awayOrense2:1

Barcelona SC

  • homeDelfin1:1
  • awayAucas1:1
  • homeIndependiente del Valle2:1
  • awayManta0:2
  • homeOrense3:0

Head to head

  • 08/09/26Primera Categoría Serie A2:1
  • 04/19/26Primera Categoría Serie A3:1
  • 08/17/25Primera Categoría Serie A2:0
  • 04/27/25Primera Categoría Serie A0:1
  • 09/15/24Primera Categoría Serie A1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Independiente del Valle30242473:3374
2Macara31166943:3454
3Universidad Catolica del Ecuador31149852:2951
4Aucas31148934:3050
5LDU Quito311471033:2549
6Barcelona SC301111832:2544
7CA Libertad311281135:3544
8Leones del Norte3110101132:3340

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.