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Briton Ferry Llansawel 1:1 Trefelin, Premier League: result, stats and how the prediction went

Result and how the prediction went

Wales, Premier LeagueMatch finished

1:1HT 1:0
1.3LLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
85%13%
Briton Ferry LlansawelPrice 1.5085%DrawPrice 3.9813%TrefelinPrice 5.313%

Line-upsThe data provider has not sent line-ups for this match.

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.63xG0.50
60Possession, %40
13Shots2
4Shots on target1
5Corners5
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
12Fouls13
1Offsides0

How the forecast did

In each forecast type the prediction is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

0 of 3
Main predictions landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast types: landed 74 of 98void — 2
  • Match result Missed
    Briton Ferry Llansawel85%

    Actual: Draw — we had 13%

  • Total goals Missed
    Over 2.554%

    Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 46%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    No75%

    Actual: Yes — we had 25%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes of the same forecast are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model and prices

Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Briton Ferry Llansawel85%63%1.181.50+21.3
XDraw13%21%7.873.98-8.5
2Trefelin3%15%39.375.31-12.8

Big gap with the price. The price usually reflects something the model doesn’t know: a new team in the league, few matches, line-ups. Not a tip.

our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed

Form and context

Briton Ferry Llansawel

  • homeLlandudno3:0
  • awayCaernarfon Town1:3
  • homeConnah's Quay1:2
  • homeColwyn Bay1:0
  • awayHolywell Town1:1

Trefelin

  • awayBarry Town United0:3
  • homeFlint Town United0:2
  • awayCardiff Metropolitan University3:1
  • awayAirbus UK0:3
  • homeTNS1:3

Head to head

  • 09/18/26Premier League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Llandudno1551922:2816
11Haverfordwest1551912:2016
13Flint Town United1542919:2514
14Ammanford15231010:429
15Trefelin1513118:366
16Holywell Town14021214:492

Full breakdown

Every outcome of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.