Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 1.98
No50%
ours 2.02
All matches
Atletico Independiente vs Real Espana prediction
VARStats prediction for 8 November: Real Espana 57%, draw 26%, Atletico Independiente 17%. Below — goals, corners, cards, team form and the referee.
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
17%26%57%
Atletico Independiente17%Draw26%Real Espana57%
Most confident forecast72% of such answers came in · 60 days
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Model and prices
Our probability next to the probability from the price, with the mark-up removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelPriceΔ
1Atletico Independiente6.05—
XDraw3.82—
2Real Espana1.75—
our modelfrom the price, mark-up removed
Quick predictions
The three most common questions — our probability next to the price.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair price and the comparison with the prices.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals prediction
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72%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 4407 matches
Corners prediction
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 4392 matches
Cards prediction
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72%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 4375 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. This block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Atletico IndependienteReal Espana
Atlético Independiente 17%, Real CD España 57%. The safest is “Real CD España or draw” at 83%.
Atlético Independiente 17%Draw 26%Real CD España 57%
1st half
16 · 40 · 44
2nd half
22 · 38 · 40
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total shots: Under 25.5
72%
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtletico IndependienteReal EspanaCombined
Goals scored0.802.002.80
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Atletico Independiente- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches14 goals conceded
- Fewest shots on target in the league — 3.2 per match12 teams in the league
- Winless in 5 matches1:3, 2:2, 0:4, 1:1, 0:4
Real Espana- 10 goals in the last 5 matches3:1, 4:3, 1:2, 1:0, 1:0
- 11th of 12 for corners — 8.1 per match12 teams in the league
- 2nd in the table — 27 points from 12 matches
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Atletico Independiente
- awayEstrella Roja1:3
- homeMarathon2:2
- homeLobos UPNFM0:4
- awayOlancho1:1
- awayOlimpia0:4
Real Espana
- homeJuticalpa3:1
- homePlatense4:3
- awayOlimpia1:2
- awayEstrella Roja1:0
- homeMotagua1:0
Head to head
- 08/16/26Liga Nacional1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
More matches in this competition
Honduras, Liga Nacional: upcoming and recently played.
Full breakdown
Every forecast type the model computes. Our probability on the left, our fair price and the current price on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.