Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.64
No39%
ours 2.57
All matches
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Estrella Roja — Motagua, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Honduras, Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras
Estrella Roja
1.8LDLDW
Motagua
2.8LWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%27%37%
Estrella Roja36%Draw27%Motagua37%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Estrella Roja2.77—
XDraw3.66—
2Motagua2.73—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricEstrella RojaMotaguaCombined
Goals scored0.330.170.50
Conceded0.670.170.84
Corners10.512.511.5
Cards0.00.00.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Estrella RojaMotagua
Estrella Roja 36%, CD Motagua 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Estrella Roja 36%Draw 27%CD Motagua 37%
1st half
32 · 40 · 28
2nd half
33 · 36 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Estrella Roja
- awayAtletico Choloma0:2
- homePlatense2:2
- awayMarathon0:5
- homeOlimpia2:2
- homeJuticalpa5:2
Motagua
- awayReal Espana0:1
- homePolicia National1:0
- awayAtletico Independiente0:0
- homeOlancho2:1
- homeLobos UPNFM4:1
Head to head
- 08/09/26Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional de Honduras2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Olimpia852119:717
Olimpia852119:7173
Marathon852114:617
Marathon852114:6174Motagua841311:813
Motagua841311:8135
Policia National832310:611
Policia National832310:6116
Olancho82516:511
Olancho82516:5117Estrella Roja823313:169
Estrella Roja823313:1698
Atletico Independiente82337:119
Atletico Independiente82337:1199
Lobos UPNFM82247:128
Lobos UPNFM82247:128Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.