Calcio Como — AS Roma, Serie A

Italy, Serie AOctober 11 at 10:30 AM

Calcio Como

2.8LWWWW

—

AS Roma

3.3DWDWW

Outcome probability

312940

Calcio Como31%Draw29%AS Roma40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Calcio Como31%3.22—

XDraw29%3.42—

2AS Roma40%2.52—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCalcio ComoAS RomaCombined

Goals scored2.172.504.67

Conceded1.170.671.84

Corners10.87.08.9

Cards1.01.72.7

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Calcio ComoAS Roma
8Table position1
59.80%Possession57.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
AS Roma travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 40%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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