All matches

Albacete Balompié — CD Eldense, Segunda División

Spain, Segunda División

Albacete Balompié
1.7LLDLL
—
CD Eldense
1.4LLWDL
Outcome probability
522623
Albacete Balompié52%Draw26%CD Eldense23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Albacete Balompié52%1.93—
XDraw26%3.89—
2CD Eldense23%4.43—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.14

No53%

ours 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlbacete BalompiéCD EldenseCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners8.08.78.3
Cards2.02.34.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Albacete BalompiéCD Eldense
    2Matches in 14 days1
    45.30%Possession53.70%
    22Table position19
    7.9Days of rest6.9
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Albacete Balompié: a home win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 12.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Albacete Balompié

  • awayGirona FC0:2
  • homeCórdoba CF1:2
  • awayGranada CF1:1
  • awayCD Castellón0:2
  • homeReal Oviedo0:1

CD Eldense

  • awayBurgos CF0:1
  • homeSD Eibar1:2
  • awayReal Sporting de Gijón1:0
  • homeReal Club Deportivo Mallorca0:0
  • awayCD Leganés0:1

Head to head

  • 02/23/25Segunda División0:1
  • 11/16/24Segunda División0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
17FC Andorra720512:156
18Córdoba CF720510:166
19CD Eldense71244:95
20Cádiz CF70437:104
21Agrupación Deportiva Ceuta FC71156:174
22Albacete Balompié70164:121

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.